The surplus will reach 402,000 metric tons in the second half, from a 134,000-ton deficit in the first six months, said Chris Pardey, a former commodities trader at Cargill and Noble Group.
Futures, which entered a bear market last month, will drop a further 20 percent to $2,534 a metric ton in Tokyo by the end of the year, the lowest since October 2009, according to the median of 15 analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
This quarter’s 23 percent decline is the worst since the global financial crisis in 2008 and exceeds a 16 percent retreat in commodities.
The slump is reducing income for growers from Thailand to Ivory Coast to Indonesia and costs for Bridgestone, the world’s largest tiremaker.
Shares of the Tokyo company will advance 33 percent in the next 12 months, the average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
“We do remain bearish,” said Singapore-based Pardey, the chief executive officer of RCMA Commodities Asia Group.
China accounts for 33 percent of global demand and tires represent 70 percent of natural rubber consumption in the country, according to Sri Trang (Shanghai), a unit of Thailand’s biggest publicly listed producer.
Source: http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20120625/BIZ/306259977/1031/BIZ
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